Surprising Stagnation Stats

We are often told that society is accelerating faster and faster. The fundamental tentpole that this idea rests upon is Moore’s Law:

Moore’s Law is the pattern that approximately every 18 months, the price/performance of transistor chips doubles. Given that transistor chips are a core input of the digital world, we can see things getting better every year.

For example, every year, we get a new iPhone with longer battery life, better screen resolution, better software usability, better processing speed, faster Internet connection, and even better AI. Simultaneously, as chips get cheaper and smaller, we see new form factors emerge that weren’t possible before like augmented reality glasses, virtual reality headsets, smart watches, and a whole myriad of other “smart devices” coming on the market.

Every year, tech companies do major marketing campaigns pushing these new products. It can feel like everything is changing.

But, the story beneath the surface is completely different. It’s like there being a storm surge with huge waves when the bottom of the ocean is completely calm and normal.

The stats below tell the story of the deep ocean:

• The price of energy is stagnant rather than decreasing
• Transportation isn’t moving faster than decades ago (ie, cars & planes)
• Biotech innovation is ⅓ the rate compared to 20 years ago
• Healthcare costs are increasing significantly without a big results increase
• Higher ed fees are increasing significantly without a big results increase
• High school graduation rate plateaued
• The average lifespan in developed countries is stalling
• Several of the utopian ideas of the 70s never materialized or stalled for decades
• Agriculture innovation has decreased since 1980 for the first time in nearly a century
• Large construction projects are more expensive and take much longer
• While there are more innovations overall, there are fewer innovations per person

Below are more details on each of these stats…

#1. The price of energy is stagnant rather than decreasing

For example, oil, one of the most important resources in the economy that is an input for almost every process, has been stagnant and volatile. Furthermore, despite figuring out nuclear power plants over 70 years ago, which are 8,000 times more efficient than fossil fuels, nuclear power plant technology and construction has been stagnant.

#2: Transportation isn’t moving faster than decades ago (ie, cars & planes)

In fact, car speed in many areas is actually decreasing because of traffic. Furthermore, the average plane speed is decreasing as well.

#3: Biotech innovation is ⅓ the rate compared to 20 years ago

The war on cancer just turned 50 years old. While there are improvements, the war is still very much alive. Robert Gordon points out, “Pharmaceutical research has reached a brick wall of rapidly increasing costs and declining benefits, with a decline in major drugs approved each pair of years over the past decade… At enormous cost, drugs are being developed that will treat esoteric types of cancer at costs that no medical insurance system can afford.”

#4: Healthcare costs are increasing significantly without a big results increase

On a per capita basis in constant 2020 dollars, the national health expenditure per person has increased from $1,875 in 1970 to $12,531 in 2020. Put differently, the national health expenditure rose from 6.9% of GDP to 19.7% in the 50-year period between 1970 and 2020.

#5: Higher ed fees are increasing significantly without a big results increase

The average US student loan debt for college grads increased from $7,458 in 1970 to $31,100 (in May 2021 dollars).

#6: High school graduation rate plateaued

In 1900, 6.4% of Americans graduated high school. By 1960, that number was 60% — an amazing 10x boost. The rate peaked at 80% in the 1960s and has since fallen about 6%.

#7: The average lifespan in developed countries is stalling

For example, life expectancy in America peaked in 2014. To put this in context, the lifespan in the United States has been increasing steadily almost every year for decades.

#8: Several of the utopian ideas of the 70s never materialized or stalled for decades

For example: space travel, regular supersonic airtravel, flying cars, increasing income, increasing life satisfaction, artificial intelligence, shorter work weeks, and cheap/abundant/clean energy.

#9: Agriculture innovation has decreased significantly since 1980 for the first time in nearly a century

For example, grain yields increase 126% from 1950 to 1980, but has only improved 47 percent in the years since, barely keeping pace with global population growth.

#10: Large construction projects are more expensive and take much longer

For example, just in the 9 years between 1971 and 1980, the cost to build a nuclear power plant doubled and the construction time increased from 7 years to 12 years.

#11: While there are more innovations overall, there are fewer innovations per person

Another place that stagnation hides is in the absolute number of innovations versus proportional numbers. As the population has grown, the total number of innovations has grown. But when innovations are measured per person, the numbers tell a different story.

#12: Environmental Stagnation

Via Ray Dalio in the Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order

The next chart on the right shows the world’s average temperature and the amount of CO2, indicating global warming. There is little doubt this is happening, will pick up, and will have big and costly effects. What is notable is this is increasing at a faster rate. The chart on the left shows the very long-term perspective on temperature (since 0 CE).

This chart captures extreme environmental events. The headline is that from 1970 to 2020 they increased from fewer than 50 per year to nearly 200 per year and are trending higher.

The next chart shows the estimated dollar cost of these events (adjusted for inflation). As shown, this is also trending higher, with extreme spikes.

Conclusion

To get a full understanding of change, we need to understand what’s changing and what’s not change.

You can see evidence for how slow things are in crises. In crises, huge innovations which would normally take years or decades can seemingly happen overnight. Below are some examples…

• Covid vaccine being fast tracked
• Highway collapse in Atlanta gets fixed in months
• Government releasing $4 Trillion during Covid

These projects show that we have the ability to innovate much faster, but choose to go slower for various reasons.

Resources

• Talk: We wanted flying cars and we got 140 characters by PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel
• Book: The Rise and Fall of American Growth
• Book: The Great Stagnation
• Book: The American Technological Challenge
• Book: Where Is My Flying Car?